Per person, land only. Park fees included where noted.
Between roughly late January and mid-March, the wildebeest herds are on the southern Serengeti short-grass plains around Ndutu, and they are giving birth. At the peak, something like 8,000 calves are born per day over a period of about three weeks. It is the largest synchronised birthing event of any large mammal on Earth.
The synchrony is a survival strategy: by dropping nearly all the calves at once, the herd swamps the predators. More calves are born than can possibly be eaten. A wildebeest calf is on its feet within minutes and running with the herd within a day.
What that means for you is the highest predator activity of the year. Lion, cheetah, hyena and jackal all concentrate on the calving grounds. Cheetah in particular do well here because the short grass suits their hunting, and Ndutu is one of the best places in Africa to see them work. It is not always comfortable viewing — you will see kills — and it is worth knowing that before you come.
Day 1: Arusha to the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, descending onto the southern plains at Ndutu in the afternoon. Ndutu sits in the conservation area rather than the national park, which matters practically: off-road driving is permitted here. That is a significant advantage for photography and for following a hunt.
Day 2 and Day 3: Two full days on the calving grounds. Early starts and late finishes, because predators work in the cool hours. The country is open short-grass plain broken by acacia woodland and seasonal lakes, and the herds are simply everywhere — visibility of many thousands of animals at once is normal.
Your guide is looking for cheetah on termite mounds, lion under the acacias, and any group of vehicles that has stopped for a reason.
Day 4: A morning at Ndutu, then transfer up to the Ngorongoro crater rim. Afternoon at leisure.
Day 5: Crater descent at dawn — the 260-square-kilometre floor with its lion, elephant bulls, buffalo, hippo and black rhino at distance — then the drive back to Arusha.
Timing: February is the most reliable month. The exact position of the herds shifts year to year with the rains, and we track it — tell us your dates and we will tell you honestly whether they fall in the window.
Green season note: this is the wet season. Expect afternoon storms, dramatic light, deep green country and very few other vehicles. Most people find it the most beautiful time of year in the Serengeti.
How anyone knows where the herds go
Nobody had reliable data on the migration until Bernhard and Michael Grzimek started flying over it in the late 1950s. They counted from a small aircraft — painted zebra-striped, which is why the plane is famous — and their surveys produced the first real map of where the herds actually moved through the year.
Michael Grzimek died doing it. His plane came down near Ngorongoro in January 1959; he was 24. He is buried on the crater rim beside his father, and their findings were used to redraw the boundaries of the Serengeti so the park would actually contain the migration rather than cut across it.
The calving grounds you are standing in are part of what they mapped. The reason this specific patch of short-grass plain matters is the soil: volcanic ash from Ngorongoro and Ol Doinyo Lengai has left it unusually rich in calcium and phosphorus, which is exactly what a lactating wildebeest needs. The herds are not here by habit. They are here for the minerals.